Chiyero chealuminium kunze kwenyika chakagadzikana, chakanyanya kuVietnam neUnited States

Zvichikanganiswa nemutemo wekudzoreredza mutero wekutengesa kunze kwenyika, zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvealuminium zvigadzirwa zvinonyanya kugovaniswa mualuminium isina kugadzirwa, zvinhu zvealuminium (kusanganisira mahwendefa ealuminium, mitsetse yealuminium, maprofiles ealuminium, mafoiri ealuminium, nezvimwewo, kunyanya semi- zvakapera zvigadzirwa), aruminiyamu simbi zvigadzirwa uye zvimwe. Muna 2017, nyika yangu yakatengesa kunze 4.79 miriyoni matani ezvigadzirwa zvealuminium, kuwedzera kwe4.5% gore negore. Zvichienderana neavhareji yemutengo weFOB weUS$2805.8/ton, avhareji yemutengo wemutengo weLME iUS$1,200/ton, uye avhareji yemutengo wepremium i74%. Mumakore achangopfuura, vhoriyamu yenyika yangu yekutengesera kunze kwenyika aruminiyamu yakakura nekukurumidza nekuwedzera kwekutanga kwekugadzira aluminium, uye maitiro ekukura akafanana. Muna 2017, vhoriyamu yenyika yangu yekuburitsa aluminium yakawedzera zvakapetwa kaviri yegore ra2011, ichisvika matani 4.79 miriyoni, uye kukosha kwekutengesa kunze kwakasvika 13.9 bhiriyoni. Dollar. Kubva 2012, aluminium inotengeswa kunze kwenyika yagara ichiverengera 13% -15% yeprimary aluminium kubuda, iyo yakagadzikana.

Kutengeswa kwenyika kwealuminium kunze kwenyika kunowanzo sanganisira mitsetse yealuminium, matanda ealuminium uye mafoiri ealuminium. Pakati pawo, mahwendefa ealuminium uye mitsetse inoita 40% yezvese zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, aluminium rod profiles inosvika makumi matatu muzana, aluminium foil account ye30%, uye mamwe marudzi asara anoita 25%. Kubva pane zvakaitika kare, chiyero ichi chekugovera chakaramba chakagadzikana, asi kubva muna 5, chikamu chealuminium mahwendefa uye mitsetse yakawedzera kusvika kusvika 2017%, uye chikamu chealuminium profiles chakaderedzwa zvakanyanya. Chimiro chedunhu chakatarisana, neUnited States neVietnam zvichiverengera chikamu chepamusoro. Chikamu chekutengeswa kwenyika yangu kwealuminium mumusika wekutengeserana wepasi rose chave chichiwedzera gore negore, uye ikozvino inodarika 50%. Muna 50, 2016% yezvigadzirwa zvealuminium zvenyika yangu zvakatengeswa kuNorth America, 18% zvakatengeswa kuEurope, uye 10% zvakatengeswa kuEast Asia neSoutheast Asia. Panyaya dzenyika dzakasiyana, nzvimbo mbiri huru dzekuenda kunze kwenyika aluminium kunze kwenyika muna 37 dzaive Vietnam neUnited States, iyo yakaverengera 2016% uye 14.6% yezvese kunze kwenyika, zvichiteerana. Nyika gumi neshanu dzepamusoro dzakatengesa kunze kwenyika dzakaita 13.6% yezvose zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Mamiriro ekunze ekunze edunhu ane zvishoma.

Kubva pakuona kwechimiro chekunze kunze kwezvigadzirwa zvakasiyana, nzvimbo huru dzemhando dzakasiyana dzearuminiyamu dzinotengeswa kunze dzakasiyana. Kubva pakuona kwe2016, iyo inonyanya kukosha yekuenda kunze kwenyika yealuminium tsvimbo uye tsvimbo profiles iVietnam. Muna 2016, nyika yangu yakatumira kunze 510,000 matani ealuminium tsvimbo netsvimbo profiles kuVietnam, iyo iri 10 nguva yehuwandu hwekutumira kunze kwechipiri-nzvimbo yePhilippines; United States neSouth Korea inyika yangu Nzvimbo huru dzekutumira kunze kwealuminium sheet uye strip, muna 2016, nyika yangu yakatumira kunze 360,000 matani ealuminium sheet uye strip kuUnited States uye 110,000 matani kuSouth Korea; United States neIndia ndidzo nzvimbo huru dzekuenda kunze kwenyika aruminiyamu foil. Muna 2016, nyika yangu yakatumira kunze 168,000 matani ealuminium foil kuUnited States. Yakatumira kunze kwe127,000 matani kuIndia. Pakazere, nzvimbo dzekutumirwa kunze kwenyika dzemhando nhatu huru dzearuminiyamu zvinhu zvakaringana.

Indasitiri Determinants: Policy + Spread + Product

The yose aruminiyamu ekisipoti uye zvigadzirwa zvayo munyika yangu anogona kukamurwa kuita mana nhoroondo nhanho: danho rokutanga pamberi penyika dambudziko rezvemari muna 2008 (pamberi 2008), iyo yaizivikanwa mutengo kuchinja uye zvishoma nezvishoma kuwedzera ekisipoti vhoriyamu; uye kukurumidza kupora nhanho mushure mekutambudzika kwemari (2009-2010), chinhu chikuru ndechekukurumidza kukwira kwemitengo inoperekedzwa nemitengo yezvinhu, uye kukurumidza kukura kwevhoriyamu kunze kwenyika; danho rekuwedzera rakatsiga mushure mematambudziko emari (2011-2015), chinhu chikuru ndechekuchengetedza mitengo yakagadzikana, vhoriyamu Nekuwedzera kwakasimba kwealuminium kudiwa; uye nguva ichangoburwa yekuderera kwemutengo uye kukwidziridzwa kwevhoriyamu (2016-ikozvino), kupinda muna 2017, avhareji mutengo wealuminium uye zvigadzirwa zvayo munyika yangu wakawedzera uye huwandu hwekutengesa kunze hwave hwakadzikama. Chikonzero ndechekuti mukuwedzera kune macroeconomic maitiro uye kupihwa uye kudiwa kwezvinhu zvakawanda, kutengesa kunze kwenyika aluminium kunonyanya kukanganiswa nemitemo, mutengo, chimiro chechigadzirwa, uye kukosha kwakawedzerwa. Kuongorora shanduko mune izvi zvinhu zvitatu kuchabatsira kunzwisisa nyika yangu musika wealuminium kunze kwenyika. Zvikonzero zvenhoroondo uye mafambiro enguva yemberi.

Inokanganiswa nemutemo wekutumira kunze, aluminium yenyika yangu uye zvigadzirwa zvayo zvinonyanya kutengeswa kunze kwealuminium. Muna 2005, nyika yangu yakadzima 8% yemutero wekutengesa kunze kwealuminium isina kuvharwa uye yakasimudza mutero wayo wekutengesa kunze kune 15% muna 2016. Muna 2008, kuitira kuti iwedzere kuvimba mune zvekutengesa kunze kwealuminium, nyika yangu yakatangazve kubhadhara mutero wealuminium kunze kwenyika uye yakasimudza mutero wemutero kusvika ku13%. Yakakonzera denderedzwa rekutanga rekukura nekukurumidza mumusika wealuminium kunze kwenyika. Kubva 2008 kusvika 2009, chikamu chekutengeswa kwealuminium munyika yangu chakakwira zvakanyanya kusvika pa60%.

Parizvino, zvinenge zvese zvigadzirwa zvealuminium munyika yangu kunze kwealuminium foil inonakidzwa ne13% kunze kwenyika ukoshi-yakawedzerwa mutero kudzoserwa, uye zvese zvigadzirwa zvealuminium foil zvinonakidzwa ne15% kunze kwenyika kukosha-yakawedzerwa mutero, uye hapana miripo yekunze inobhadhariswa. Preferential kunze kwenyika mutemo ndechimwe chezvinhu zvikuru zvinotsigira kukura kwearuminiyamu yenyika yangu kunze kwenyika kwenguva yakareba. Tichifunga kuti indasitiri yezvigadzirwa zvealuminium parizvino iri pasi pekudzvanyirirwa, uye purofiti yezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika iri mukati me10%, mutero wekutengesa kunze kwenyika uri mumamiriro ekushaya pundutso mushure mekubviswa kwemutero wekutengesa kunze kwenyika. Zvinotarisirwa kuti mutemo wekudzoreredza mutero uchaenderera mberi munguva pfupi. Panguva imwecheteyo, serudzi rwenyika yangu yakanyanyisa kuferefetwa uye kurangwa, kutengeswa kunze kwenyika zvigadzirwa zvealuminium kunokanganiswa zvakanyanya nemhiri kwemakungwa anti-dumping marongero. Kubva 2015, United States, Australia, India nedzimwe nyika dzakawedzera zvakanyanya kuwanda kwekutanga kuferefetwa kwekutengeserana uye kuranga zvigadzirwa zvealuminium zveChinese, uye mhando dzezvigadzirwa zvakafukidzwa zvawedzera. Nhoroondo, apo US payakaita anti-dumping matanho paaluminium profiles muChina muna 2011 uye yakatanga kuferefeta pamusoro pekutengeserana kwealuminium foil nenyika yangu muna 2017, zvigadzirwa zveChina zvakaverengera zvinopfuura 65% yemugove wemusika wekunze, izvo zvakakosha kune. nyika yangu aruminiyamu inotengeswa kune dzimwe nyika munguva pfupi. Vose vakave netapuro yakati. Pakati pavo, anti-dumping muna 2011 zvakakonzera zvakananga kudonha kwe38% muhuwandu hwekutengesa kunze kweChinese neAmerica zvigadzirwa zvealuminium. Huwandu hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika zvigadzirwa zvealuminium zvemunyika yangu zvinoramba zvichikura panguva imwe chete nekubuda kwezvinhu zvealuminium. Kubva 2011, iyo mwedzi nemwedzi aruminiyamu ekunze vhoriyamu uye reshiyo yekubuda yachinja pakati pe7% ne10%. Shanduko iyi inokanganiswa zvakanyanya nekusiyana kwemitengo yemukati neyekunze, izvo zvinozokanganisa mutengo wakaenzana uye kukwikwidza kwemusika kwealuminium kunze kwenyika. Mari yekugadzira aluminium munyika yangu inotarwa nemutengo wealuminium yekutanga uye mutengo wealuminium kugadzirisa. Kare, mari yekugadzira yaive yechipiri uye haina kuchinja zvakanyanya. Naizvozvo, kune mamwe makambani eChinese ane zvese kumusoro uye kudzika kwekugadzira zvigadzirwa, mutengo wekugadzira aluminium unonyanya kutsanangurwa neMutengo wekugadzira wealuminiyamu yekutanga inotarwa. Mumakore maviri apfuura, mukana wemutengo wakadzikira nekuda kwekuenderera mberi kwekukwira kwemitengo yemarasha epamba.

Mamiriro echigadzirwa uye kukosha kwakawedzerwa kune simba rakasimba pakugadzikana kwemitengo yezvinhu zvealuminium uye purofiti yemabhizinesi ekugadzira. Mukufamba kwekuderedzwa kwerenminbi, mutengo wealuminium wakadzikira kune imwe nhanho. Panyaya yemhando, mutengo wemhando dzakasiyana dzealuminium zvinhu uye maitiro avo ekuchinja mutengo akasiyana. Nekutarisa mutengo weRMB wearuminiyamu inotengeswa kunze kune mutengo weSHFE, zvinogona kuwanikwa kuti kubvira 2017, chikonzero chikuru chekudzikira kwemutengo wearuminiyamu kunze kwenyika ndiko kukurumidza kuderera kwekukosha kwechigadzirwa chacho. Iyo yakakwirira kukosha kwechigadzirwa, kuderera kwemutengo wekunzwa uye kushanduka. Mudiki. Panyaya yealuminium sheet uye strip, kubva kunyika yangu kutumira kunze kwenyika data kuUnited States, kukosha kwakawedzerwa kwenyika yangu yakananga kunze kwealuminium sheet uye strip yakaderera. Muna 2016, United States yakaunza kunze 38% yearuminiyamu ndiro yayo yakazara uye mitsetse yekutenga kubva kuChina. Pakati penyika shanu dzepamusoro maererano nehuwandu hwekutengesa gore iroro, mutengo weCIF wearuminiyamu ndiro uye zvigadzirwa zvemicheka kubva kuChina zvaive zvakaderera pane US $ 2,265 / ton chete. Huwandu hweavhareji hweCIF mutengo wearuminiyamu pepa uye strip muUnited States gore iroro yaive US$2,730/ton, yaive yakaderera ne18%. Muna 2016, US yakaunza kunze kwealuminium foil kubva kuChina yakaverengera makumi matanhatu nenhanhatu muzana yeayo aruminiyamu foil akatengeswa kunze kwenyika gore iroro. Pakati penyika shanu dzepamusoro dzinotenga kunze, mutengo wekuChina wealuminium foil wakaderera, hafu chete yeCanada neAustria. Panyaya yealuminium profiles, muna 66, US yakatora zvakananga maprofiles ealuminium kubva kunyika yangu yakangotora 2016% yezvose zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, nemutengo weavhareji weUS $ 3 / toni, yakakwirira kudarika avhareji yeUS $ 4,794 / tani. Zvisinei, tichifunga kuti nhamba huru yealuminium profiles yakatengeswa kubva kunyika yangu kuenda kuVietnam inotengeswa zvakare kumusika weUnited States, mutengo wepakati wealuminium profiles inotengeswa neUnited States kubva kuVietnam inongova US $ 3,944 / ton, iyo US $ 2943 / tani yakaderera pane avhareji mutengo. Kunyangwe zvisiri chokwadi kuti China Chikamu chezvigadzirwa, asi zvine chokwadi chekuti zvigadzirwa zveChinese zvichiri munzvimbo yemutengo wakaderera mushure mekutengesazve kunze kwenyika.

Japan zvakare ndiyo imwe yenzvimbo huru dzearuminiyamu yenyika yangu uye zvigadzirwa zvayo. Zvinoenderana nedhata rekupinza nyika muJapan, muna 2016, kutengeswa kwayo kwealuminium profiles uye mitsetse yealuminium kubva kuChina haina kudarika 15% yezvakatengeswa kunze kwenyika gore iroro. Kune zvinhu zviviri izvi, zvigadzirwa zveChinese zvine mutengo wakanakira. Zvinopfuura makumi manomwe neshanu muzana eJapan akatengwa kunze kwenyika aruminiyamu foil inobva kuChina, uye avhareji mutengo wetsika wekunze weChinese aluminium foil isingasviki hafu yezvigadzirwa zveKorea zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, inongori 75/1 chete yezvigadzirwa zveAmerica zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, izvo zvinogara zvakanyanya. market.

Anti-dumping kuedza kwakawedzera, kwenguva pfupi kutengesa kunze kwenyika kunogona kukanganiswa kusvika pamwero wakati

Muna March 2018, Mutungamiri weUnited States Trump akazivisa kushandiswa kwemutero mutsva wesimbi nealuminium, achironga kuisa mutero we25% pasimbi inotengeswa kunze kwenyika uye mutero we10% paaluminium inotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Zvichiitika, muna Kubvumbi 2011, United States yakatanga kumanikidza mabasa ekurwisa kurasa marara uye mabasa ekupikisa pamaprofiles ealuminium apinzwa munyika yangu, uye kubuda kwenyika yangu kumabhawa eAruminiyamu eAmerica netsvimbo zvakamira. Chiyero ichi chakakonzerawo kuti China yose inotengeswa kunze kwealuminium kuUnited States muna 2011 idzike ne38% gore negore zvichienzaniswa ne2010. Yakanga isati yasvika muna 2013 apo nyika yangu yose yakatengeswa kunze kweAluminium kuUnited States yakatangazve kukura. Nhevedzano yematanho achangoburwa anovavarira kuchengetedza yakanyanya kudzvanywa pane yangu aluminium profiles. Kubva 2009, nyika dzekuMadokero dzakamiririrwa neUnited States, European Union neAustralia dzakaramba dzichitanga kuferefeta uye anti-subsidy kuferefeta pane zvigadzirwa zvealuminium zvinotumirwa kunyika yangu, zvakanyanya kunangana nealuminium extrusions, mavhiri ealuminium nezvimwe zvigadzirwa. Kubva 2015, huwandu hwenyika dziri kutora chikamu mukupokana-kurasa uye anti-rubatsiro kuferefeta pane zvigadzirwa zvealuminium muChina hwakawedzera, uye marudzi ezvigadzirwa zvakafukidzwa akawedzerawo. Zviitiko zvikuru zvinosanganisira: Muna 2015, India yakatanga tsvakurudzo ye-anti-dumping pamusoro peChinese aluminium foil, uye yakaita mutongo wekupedzisira muna March 2017. Zvinokurudzirwa kuisa mutongo wekupedzisira pane zvigadzirwa zveChinese zvinobatanidzwa munyaya yacho, uye zvinokurudzirwa. kubhadharisa mutero weUS$0.69-US$1.63 pazvigadzirwa zveChinese zvine chekuita nenyaya iyi. /Kg yemabasa ekurwisa kurasa. Kubva pakupera kwa2016, India yaive nyika yangu yechipiri pakukura mutengesi wealuminium foil, uye aluminium foil inotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuIndia yakaverengera 12% yenyika yangu yakazara aruminiyamu foil akatengeswa kunze kwenyika gore iroro. Kuitwa kwemabasa ekudzivirira kurasira kuchawedzera mutengo wekupedzisira weChinese aluminiyamu foil inotengeswa kunze kubva kuIndia ne27% kusvika 62%, izvo zvinotarisirwa kudzikisira zvakanyanya mukana wemutengo uripo uye chikamu chemusika chezvigadzirwa zveChinese.

Iyo itsva US simbi uye aluminium mutero mutemo inochengetedza yakanyanya kudzvanywa pamaprofile eChina ealuminium. Muna 2015, US yakatonga 33.28% general dumping margin pamaprofiles enyika yangu. Pakupera kwe2016, yakatonga kuti makambani e9 akabatanidzwa munyaya iyi aive pasi pemutero wepamusoro-anti-dumping mutero we86.01%. Muna 2017, vakatongawo kuti vaizochengeta mutero wavo pamaprofiles eAluminium eChina panguva yekuongorora kwekukuvadzwa kwemaindasitiri. Ikozvino anti-dumping uye countervailing matanho. Panguva imwecheteyo, kubvira 2017, South Korea neBrazil dzakapindawo mumutsetse wekuferefeta kuferefetwa pazvigadzirwa zvearuminiyamu zveChinese, uye mhando dzechigadzirwa dzakafukidza zvakare mahwendefa ealuminium pre-coated photosensitive plate, aluminium cookware, mavhiri ealuminium alloy nezvimwe zvigadzirwa. . Muna Nyamavhuvhu 2016, Australia yakatanga ongororo yakapetwa kaviri pamusoro pekupinzwa kunze kwezvinhu zveMalaysian neVietnamese aluminum. Mutongo wekutanga wakaitwa muna Gumiguru 2016, uye mutongo wekupedzisira wakaitwa munaJune 2017. Pakati pavo, kuferefetwa kweEastAsia Aluminium Company, MienHua Precision Mechanical, nezvimwewo muVietnam mabhizinesi eChinese anotsigirwa nemari akaita madhigirii akasiyana e-anti-dumping margin. zvisungo, zvinosanganisira akawanda marudzi ezvigadzirwa zvakaita sealuminium rod profiles, mitsetse yealuminium uye mapepi ealuminium, uye kukanganisa kunogona kunge kuri matani gumi.

Kubva mukuona kwenhoroondo, mitemo yekare yekupokana nekurasa uye yekupikisa yakave nemhedzisiro yakakura pahuwandu hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika uye chikamu chenyika dzakatarwa, neavhareji inodarika 30%. Munguva pfupi, kutenderera uku kwekurwisa-dumping kuedza kuchawedzera kufukidzwa kwenzvimbo dzakasiyana siyana uye huwandu hukuru hwezvigadzirwa. Zvinotarisirwa kukanganisa 360,000 matani ealuminium sheet uye strip zvakananga, kusanganisira matani mazana mashanu ezviuru zvekutengesa kunze kwenyika, uye mari inobatanidzwa iUS $ 500,000 bhiriyoni. Ichava nechimwe chinokanganisa pakugadzirwa kwealuminium kubva ku1.5 kusvika ku2018. Zvisinei, tichifunga kuti kushayikwa kwealuminium pasi rose kunonetsa kuderedza munguva pfupi, uye iyo yakananga pasi pemvura yealuminium sheet uye kubudisa kunze kwenyika kuUnited States inonyanya mashizha emotokari. , iyo inoverengera chikamu chepamusoro chezvese zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika (zvinopfuura 2019%), kukanganisa kwehuwandu hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika uye kukosha kwekunze kunotarisirwa kuve kushoma. .

Kukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi + kuderedza mitengo yemitengo, yakaderera-yekupedzisira aluminium mabhenefiti anoderera

Mari yekugadzira aluminium munyika yangu inotarwa nemutengo wealuminium yekutanga uye mutengo wealuminium kugadzirisa. Mari yekugadzirisa ndeyechipiri uye ine shanduko shoma. Naizvozvo, kune mamwe makambani ekuChina ane zvese kumusoro uye kuzasi kwekugadzira zvigadzirwa, mutengo wekugadzira aluminium unonyanya Kutemerwa nemutengo wekugadzira wealuminiyamu yekutanga. Nekudaro, mutengo wekutanga wekugadzira aluminium munyika yangu une kusarudzika, uye zvakaoma kutsigira mitengo yakaderera kwenguva yakareba. Kunyanya, mutengo wekugadzira wekutanga aluminium munyika yangu une zvinotevera maitiro. Maererano neBloomberg data, muna 2017, mutengo wekushandisa magetsi egridi kumabhizinesi ealuminium waive paavhareji 2700 yuan/ton (kana US$400/ton) yakakwira kupfuura yemagetsi akazvipa ega. Mutengo wemagetsi wemakambani ekuChina ealuminium anoshandisa maakaundi emagetsi anozvipa ega chete 31% yemari yavo yemari, nepo ayo anoshandisa grid magetsi anoita 5%. Saizvozvo, makambani ealuminium anoshandisa magetsi ega ane avhareji yepurofiti inosvika 3,115 yuan/tani kugadzira aluminium yekutanga muna 2017, nepo makambani anoshandisa magetsi egidhi anenge asina purofiti. Kuenzaniswa nedzimwe nyika nematunhu epasi, kushandiswa kwesimba patani ye electrolytic aruminiyamu inogadzirwa nemaChinese mabhizinesi ealuminium ingori 13,600 kilowatt-maawa, inova nhanho yepamusoro pasirese, zvakanyanya nekuda kwehutsva hutsva hwekugadzira mudzimba. Mari yemagetsi inoita 35% -40% yemutengo wekugadzira we electrolytic aluminium. Parizvino, 30% yeChina electrolytic aluminiyamu inogadzirwa kuburikidza nemagetsi egidhi, uye makambani ekuChina aruminiyamu anoshandisa magetsi emagetsi ane mutengo wepamusoro wemagetsi pasi rose. Makambani eAluminium anoshandisa magetsi anozvipa ane mukana muduku pamusoro peEurope neUnited States paavhareji, asi akafanana neaya ari kuMiddle East. Reshiyo ichine mukaha wakakura. Zvinoenderana nefungidziro yakaitwa naRusal, mutengo wemagetsi egridi kumakambani ekuChina aruminiyamu kugadzira tani imwe yearuminiyamu ye electrolytic ingangoita US$1, ichiverengera makumi mashanu muzana emutengo uripo weLME, ukuwo mutengo muCanada neGulf nyika ungave uri pasi peUS. $900. Pamusoro pezvo, mutengo wapfuura mukana wemagetsi ekuChina emakambani ealuminium ega ega akabuda kubva kumarasha akachipa. Muna 2016, ichitungamirirwa nekuderedza simba remarasha, mitengo yemarasha yakakwira zvakanyanya, izvo zvakanyanya kukwidza mutengo wezvigadzirwa zvemagetsi anozvitsigira. Kukwira kwemitengo yemarasha kunotarisirwa kuwedzera kudhura kwemagetsi. Pasi pehuviri hwekudzvinyirirwa kwekudzikisa simba rekugadzira marasha uye nekusimudzira kuchengetedza kwezvakatipoteredza, kukwira kwemitengo yesimba kuchava maitiro. Parizvino, kugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu ye electrolytic yenyika yangu kune maviri chete masosi emagetsi: hydropower uye thermal simba. Avhareji yemutengo wemagetsi emvura inosvika 0.2 yuan/kWh. Zvichienzaniswa neazvino-inopa simba remagetsi mutengo we0.3 yuan/kWh, ine zvakanakira zviri pachena, asi chikamu chakaderera. Ndiyo 10%.

Kupfuura 90% yealumina inopedzwa munyika yangu inozvigadzira, uye isingasviki 10% inotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Mumusika wepamba, pane musiyano mudiki pakati pemitengo yealumina yemuno nealumina inotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Paavhareji, mutengo wekutanga-kirasi alumina muQingdao Port inongori zana yuan-100 yuan/tani yakakwira kupfuura yemumba yekutanga-kirasi alumina. Kuenzanisa mutengo wemumba wealuminium wemunyika yangu kubva 200 kusvika 2010 nemutengo wekutengesa wealuminium wemakambani makuru ealuminium munyika, zvinogona kuwanikwa kuti mutengo wemumba wealuminium wakakwira kupfuura avhareji yealumina mutengo weAlcoa uye Rusal neUS $2015-US $60/ ton. Panyaya ye bauxite, pari zvino 100% yebauxite yenyika yangu inowanikwa kuburikidza nekutenga kunze kwenyika, asi avhareji yemutengo wekutenga kunze inongori US$45/ton yakakwira kupfuura avhareji mutengo pamusika wepamba. Inoverengerwa zvichibva pakugadzirwa kwe 15 toni yearuminiyamu ye electrolytic pamatani mashanu ega ega e bauxite, patani. Mutengo wezvigadzirwa zve electrolytic aluminium wawedzera neUS$1/ton. Pakazere, kugadzirwa kweAluminiyamu yeChina kune hupfumi hwehukuru uye kune zvakanakira mukushandisa simba reyuniti, asi kukwira kwemitengo yesimba uye kumanikidzwa kwezvakatipoteredza kuchawedzera kuwedzera mitengo yekugadzira. Makambani ealuminium kuMiddle East neCanada anogona kuchengetedza iwo ega mutengo wakadzikama uye kubatsirwa kubva mukuderera kwemutengo mukana wezvigadzirwa zveChinese nekuda kwekukosha kwemaitiro avo.

Nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo yesimba, iyo yekutanga aluminium yekugadzira mutengo mukana weChina wakaderera. Mumakore achangopfuura, nekuwedzera kunoramba kuchienderera mberi kwekugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu yenyika yangu, maitiro ekuchinja mumitengo yearuminiyamu yemumba neyekunze akawedzera kufanana. Mukufamba kwenguva, mutsauko wemutengo pakati peSHFE neLME wakaoma kuchengetedza padanho repamusoro, uye hwindo rehombe-yekutengesa kunze arbitrage ishoma. Tichifunga kuti kuderera kwemutengo wekuchinjana uye kuwedzera kwemitengo yesimba kuchaita kuti kuderera kwezvakanaka zvekutengesa kunze kwenyika kwezvigadzirwa zvealuminium, pamwero wekuchinjana we6.5 uye kuwedzera kwemutengo wesimba we10%, zvigadzirwa zvine mubhadharo wekugadzirisa. inodarika US$755/tani ine pundutso yakavimbika uye mabhenefiti ekunze kunze, Zvigadzirwa zvemhando yepamusoro-soro zvinotanga kubatsira.

Batanidza kuchinyorwa ichi: Kutengeserana kunokanganisa kutengeswa kwealuminium kwenguva pfupi

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