Kubva chikamu chechipiri che2016, nekuda kwekuedza kwakasimba kurambidza "simbi yepasi", zviputi zvesimbi zvakagadzirwa, uye misika yemisika yakaramba yakaderera, zvichiita kuti zvive zvakaoma kuti mitengo yesimbi iwire zvakanaka munguva pfupi. Nokudaro, kurambidzwa kwe "floor steel" kwakanonoka pakati-kusvika-refu-refu-yenguva yekuderera kwemitengo yesimbi. Yakabatana nekukanganisika kwekugadzirwa kushoma panguva yekudziya, musika unogara uri pamusoro pearc kwenguva refu. Pamusoro pezvo, divi rekuda harisati radzikama zvinooneka uye rakatsigirawo mitengo yesimbi. Parizvino, purofiti yezvigayo zvesimbi iri padanho repamusoro, uye musika unotya nzvimbo dzakakwirira. Izvo zvinonetsekana nezve kutangwa kwehuto hutsva hwemagetsi emagetsi uye kuwedzera kuomeswa kwemutemo wemari. Nokudaro, misika yesimbi muhafu yechipiri ye2017 haisi chokwadi "bhiza-bhiza".

Parizvino, kukanganisa kwekurambidzwa kwe "land strip steel" pamusika hakuna kupera zvachose, iyo yakachengetedza misika yemusika wesimbi mumaguta e35 pane yakaderera. Kubva munaJune 30, 2017, misika yemusika yezvigadzirwa zvishanu zvesimbi zvakangova mamiriyoni 9.512 chete, iyo iyo yakareba yemusika wekutengesa yaiva 5.022 mamiriyoni ematani, ayo akanga akafanana neayo panguva imwe chete muna 2016; nhamba yemusika weplate yaiva yakakwirira, inosvika mamiriyoni 4.490 matani, asi munguva pfupi yapfuura Pave nekukurumidza kuderera. Pane kukakavara kwakawanda mumusika maererano nekugadzirwa chaiko kwe "ground strip steel". Zvinoenderana neakasiyana maitiro ekuverenga, iyo yegore yekubuda chiyero che "ground strip simbi" inotangira kubva pa39 miriyoni matani kusvika 100 miriyoni matani.

Kana kuyerwa kubva pakuona kweiyo crude simbi inobuda yenguva dzose simbi mills inozadza gap re "ground simbi", iyo chaiyo inobuda ye "ground simbi" inotarwa nepamusoro-yakaderera poindi yegoho musiyano nzira inogona kunge iri pedyo nemamiriyoni zana ematani / gore. , zvichipiwa ikozvino-refu-process capacity utilization Muyero hausisiri wakaderera. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate ye100 steel mills yakaongororwa neMysteel iri padyo ne163% mushure mekubvisa simba rekare. Zvinogona kutora mwedzi 90 kuzadza gaka rekupa nekuwedzera kugadzirwa kweiyo blast furnace-converter. Kuzadza gap rekupa. Uyezve, kana kugadzirwa kwesimbi kuchikanganiswa nekuda kwezvikonzero zvakasiyana-siyana, zvinotora nguva yakareba kuti izadze gaka. Kubuda chaiko kwe "ground strip simbi" inotarwa nepfupi-process simbi chigayo simba utilization nzira inenge pakati mamiriyoni 9.3 kusvika mamiriyoni 39 matani pagore, uye zvichiri kutora 70 kusvika 3.7 mwedzi kuzadza gaka iri.

Parizvino, kuwedzera kune hutsva hwekugadzira huni hwe blast furnace-converter process yeRizhao Steel, kukwanisa kwemaitiro matsva ekukura muna 2017 zvishoma. Kana kutangwa kwehuto hutsva hwemagetsi hukanonoka, kuzadza gaka rekupa kunozonyanya kutsamira pane iripo yenguva yakareba inoenderana nekugadzira kugadzirwa. Chero zvazvingava, kuzadza gomba kunoda simbi dzesimbi kuti dzishande pahuwandu hwakazara kwenguva yakareba. Zvakare, kuzadza gaka rekupa mumwaka-wekupedzisira kuchawedzera kushomeka kwekushandisa mumwaka wepamusoro. Kana zviri zvehukuru hwehuto hutsva hwekugadzira huni yemagetsi, idambudziko zvakare nekusagadzikana kukuru. Musika unowanzo kutarisirwa kunge ungangoita mamirioni makumi maviri ematani / gore. Kana masimba aya akawedzerwa kumazinga ekuzadza gaka rekupa kubva pachikamu chechina che20, nguva yekuzadza gaka inogona kupfupiswa nemwedzi inenge 2017-0.5 zvichienderana nekuverenga kwechiyero chekugadzira che "ground strip steel". Muchidimbu, kana kudiwa kuri kugadzikana, zvinogona kutora mwedzi mitanhatu kuzadza gap.

Munguva yepakati uye yakareba, nguva ye "pasi pesimbi" iri kuuya, uye nguva ye "floor steel" inogona kugoverwa muzvikamu zviviri. Danho rokutanga nderokuwedzera kugadzirwa kwekuputika kwevira-converter kukwanisa kuzadza gomba rinokonzerwa nekurambidzwa kwe "ground steel", uye danho rechipiri nderokuzadza gaka nekuputika kwevira-converter simba uye simba rechoto chemagetsi. Munguva pfupi yapfuura, kutarisisa kwesosaiti kune indasitiri yesimbi kwakachinja kubva pamugero wekupa kunokonzerwa nekudzvanywa kwe "floor simbi" kune itsva yemagetsi arc furnace kugona uye kugovera uye kudiwa mamiriro emagraphite electrode anopedzwa mumagetsi arc choto kugadzira process. Chero bedzi kuchine mabhodhoro emhando imwe kana imwe mukuita kuburitsa electric arc furnace capacity, zvinogoneka kuti nguva iyo gap rekupa razadzwa richanonoka, uye nguva yezvigayo zvesimbi kuchengetedza purofiti yavo mu danho rinobudirira richarebeswawo.

Kune rimwe divi, iyo "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei uye Nzvimbo Yakatenderedza 2017 Mhepo Yekudzivirira Kudzivirira uye Kudzora Basa Rorongwa"'s kupisa mwaka wekugadzika dhigirii remutemo zvakare yakaridza alarm yekusimba kwekupa. Kubva pakati paMbudzi 2017 kusvika pakati paKukadzi 2018, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei mhepo yekuparadzira kusvibiswa kwemhepo chiteshi 2+26 kusvibiswa kwakanyanya kwemudhorobha uye maindasitiri anoshandisa simba zvakanyanya kudonha kusvika pamakumi mashanu vhara. Kudzimwa kwemavira anoputika kunokonzeresa simbi yakanyungudutswa nemabhiriti. resource crisis. Tichifunga nezveazvino akaderera eyesiti mazinga, kugovera contraction kunogona kukonzera nyore kusimba kwemusika zvakare. Parizvino, zvigayo zvesimbi zvakagadzira zvigadziriso zvekugadzira zvichibva pane purofiti yemhando, uye mune ramangwana zvichawedzera kutenderedza zviwanikwa zvemvura yesimbi kune marudzi ane pundutso yakanaka. Mitsetse yekugadzira yemamwe marudzi inogona kumisa zvachose kugadzira, uye mamwe marudzi ane pundutso yakanaka anogona kunge achiri mukugadzirwa kwakazara.

Zvinoenderana nekuverenga kwakavakirwa pamutsetse wekugadzira unosvika chiyero che80%, iyo shoma kugadzirwa panguva yekudziya mwaka yakakonzera kudonha kwe30-40 miriyoni matani ekupihwa kwesimbi, izvo zvinokanganisa kuburitsa kwegore neanenge 3%. Marudzi akanyanya kukanganiswa ekugadzirwa kwakaganhurirwa masimbi anopisa akakungurutswa, mapaipi esimbi akakwenenzverwa, maprofile, anotonhora-akakungurutswa matete simbi tambo, uye epakati-gobvu uye yakafara mitsetse yesimbi. Kusiyana neizvi, kupihwa kweiyo rebar hakuna kuganhurirwa sesimbi mitsetse, welded pombi uye profiles, uye simbi mbariro hadzina kukanganiswa kupfuura waya nembariro. Kana iyo gap rekupa rinokonzerwa nekurambidzwa kwe "floor steel" haigone kuzadzwa nekota yechina ye2017, zvinowanzoitika kuti zvigayo zvesimbi zvicharamba zvichitenderedza zviwanikwa zvemvura zvesimbi kune zvigadzirwa zvakareba. Zvirambidzo zvekugadzirwa kwezvakatipoteredza zvichabatsira musika weplate kudzikisira kudzvanywa kwekuwandisa.

Pamusoro pezvo, chikamu chekushandiswa kwemutemo wekudzivirira kugadzirwa kwemamiriro ekunze kwemwaka wekupisa wechando wa2017 unopindirana nekuvhurwa kwe19th National Congress yeCommunist Party yeChina. Zvinoenderana nemaitiro apfuura, nhevedzano yemisangano yakakosha inotora mavhiki maviri, uye kusimba kwekutarisa kwekuchengetedza kwezvakatipoteredza uye kuchengetedzwa kwekuchengetedzwa kwenharaunda zvirambidzo zvinogona kuwedzera. Izvi zvisati zvaitika, 13th National Games ichaitwa muTianjin kubva munaAugust 27 kusvika September 8, 2017. Kunyange kana mhepo yemhepo munzvimbo yeBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei inowanzova yakanaka kubva munaAugust kusvika kuSeptember, hazvigoni kutongerwa kuti pre-National Games ichawedzerwa. Iko kugona kwekuedza kukuru kwekuchengetedza kuchengetedza kwezvakatipoteredza. Nechinangwa kutaura, kutanga kubva pakati paAugust 2017, kugadzirwa kwesimbi muNorth China kunogona kuramba kuchivhiringidzwa nezvinhu zvakasiyana, uye nguva yekuzadza gaka rekupa icharamba ichimiswa.

Nekudaro, nekuti iyo yekudzivirira kuchengetedzwa kwezvakatipoteredza muganho kugadzirwa mumwaka wekudziya yakanangana nekuputika kwevira remoto, kugadzirwa kwechoto chemagetsi hakukanganisike panguva yekupisa. Huru hutsva hwemavira emagetsi huchazadza chikamu chegomba rakakonzerwa neyakaganhurirwa blast furnace-converter kugona, uye hutsva hwechoto chemagetsi hunonyanya kunanga kumusika wezvigadzirwa zvenguva refu. Kuwanda kwekupihwa kwezvigadzirwa zvenguva refu kunokanganiswa kuchave kwakaderera. Nekuda kwekuwandisa kwakanyanya kwesimbi yakaraswa, mitengo yezvirasha inogona kunge isinganzwisisike zvakanyanya pakutumirwa kwehuto hwemagetsi hutsva. Izvo zvinodikanwa kuti titarise pamamiriro ekushanda emabhizinesi mapfupi-maitiro kuona huwandu hwekugona kuburitswa kwekupa.

Monetary policy inosimbiswa zvine mwero, mhedzisiro yekudzikira kwekuda kuri kupera, uye mhedzisiro yekugadziriswa kwekupa kwakakurumbira.
Ikozvino kutenderera kwekusimbisa kwemari kwakatanga muna Chikunguru 2016, asi maererano nemutemo wekusimudzira maitiro kubva munaMay 2017, inoyerwa nemaitiro emhando yeM1 gore negore kukura kwekukura, inowanzorerekera kune imwe nhanho yekusimbisa. . Kumwe kusimba kwegwaro rezvemari kubva padambudziko remari pasi rose muna 2009 kwave kunyoro pane izvo, uye kuzvidzora kushoma pamabasa ehupfumi. Ichi ndichowo chikonzero nei kugadzirwa kwepamba uye kusagadzira PMIs haina kuwira asi yakasimuka munaJune 2017. Maviri maviri emari yekusimbisa mutemo mu2010 uye 2013 yakagara kwemwedzi ye28 nemwedzi 21, maererano. Tichifunga kuti ikozvino kukura kwehupfumi hwepamba hakusi kure nechinangwa chegwaro uye nzvimbo yekufambisa ishoma, nguva yeiyi denderedzwa rekugadzirisa mitemo inogonawo kuva Inogara kwemwedzi inenge ye20, asi kuomesa muitiro hakusi yunifomu kufamba. , uye kwave kune nhanho dzokukurumidza nokuderera munhau.

Iko kusimba kunyoro kwemutemo wezvemari wepamba kunogona kunzwika kubva pane shanduko pameso level. Chinonyanya kuoneka ndechekuti kutengeswa kwezvivakwa kuchiri padanho repamusoro, uye chiyero chekugara zvikwereti zvembareti hazvina kuderera zvakanyanya, asi zvishoma nezvishoma zvakaderera. Nekuda kwemadhorobha ekutonga zvivakwa, kutengesa zvivakwa mumaguta ekutanga uye echipiri-tier kwadzikira zvakanyanya, asi maguta echitatu-nechina anoramba achikurudzira nzira yekubvisa zvivakwa. Iyo yose yenyika real estate sales ichiri kushanda pamwero wepamusoro. Iko hakuna kuderera kukuru kwemitengo yedzimba mu70 maguta makuru uye epakati-kati muChina. Nzvimbo ichangobva kutanga yeimba yeimba ichiri kukura zvine mwero, iyo ichiri kubatsira kuchengetedza mitengo yakakwirira yesimbi. Nguva iyo musika wezvivakwa wakakwira nekudonha, zvakanyanya kunonoka kuderera kwehupfumi hwepamba. Ikozvino kuipa kwakashata kwekudiwa pamitengo yesimbi haisati yaonekwa. Chete apo kutengeswa kwedzimba kwenyika kunoderera uye mitengo yeimba inoshanduka kubva pakukwira kusvika pakudonha, mitengo yesimbi Kudonha kuchawedzera zvakanyanya.

Kuenzanisa kwedhigirii remukati memari inosimbisa mutemo kubvira 2008
Pamusoro pezvo, kudiwa kunotarisirwa kuve nekukanganisa kukuru kumusika. Pasi pekurudziro yechirongwa chemireniyamu cheXiongan New Area, zvinotarisirwa nemusika zvehurumende "kuita nekukurumidza nekuita mutsauko" zvinogona kuramba zvichivirisa. Kunyangwe kana tarisiro dzakadaro dzikanyeperwa mushure, dzinogonawo kugadzira maitiro ekuzvizadzisa pamusika. Shingairira kuzadza musika uri kusimukira wezvekutengesa. Nekudaro, kutenderera kwezvematongerwo enyika uye kutenderera kwehupfumi hakuna kuenderana zvakanyanya. Musika wegore idzva wa 2012-2013 wakapedzwa mukati mekutenderera kwemari, ukuwo kumashure kwemusika wegore idzva ra 2017-2018 kwaive kusimba kwemari. Muchikamu chechina, mhedzisiro yeiyi kutenderera kwekusimbisa mari ichaonekwa zvishoma nezvishoma. Kunyangwe iyo musika ichaita fungidziro yemakore, icharamba ichidzorwa nemamiriro ekusimbisa mari.

Kwegore kugadzirwa kwesimbi (≥6 miriyoni matani) simbi chigayo kuputika choto chekushanda uye purofiti
Iyo yepakati-level uye macro-level yekuvhundutsa zvinhu zvaivepo mukota yechina hazvifanirwe kurerutswa. Panyaya yemesoscale, simbi dzesimbi dzehukuru hwakasiyana dzine mhinduro dzakasiyana kune zviratidzo zvemitengo, iyo inogona kushandiswa sechinhu chakakosha chekutonga kutendeuka kwemitengo yesimbi. Kana zvigayo zvakakura zvesimbi zvapinda muzvikamu zvekutangazve kugadzira uye kuwedzera, musika unogona kunge usiri kure nekutendeuka.

Iyo huru chibvumirano hwaro hwe rebar uye kushanduka kweiyo rebar musika hesita
Huwandu hwekukura kwehupfumi hwenyika hwadzikira, uye kuderera kunodzvinyirira kudiwa kwesimbi. Zvichipa kuti kune zvakawanda zvinokanganisa zvinhu mumusika wesimbi muna 2017, mutengo wakaderera wesimbi hauzove wakatsetseka. Kutenderera kwezvematongerwo enyika kunogona kumutsa tarisiro yemusika. Panguva imwecheteyo, ichasangana nezvirambidzo zvekugadzira panguva yekupisa. Zvipingamupinyi.
Tinotarisira kuti zvibvumirano zveRB1710 neRB1801 zvichashanda muRMB 2800-3600/ton uye RMB 2700-3500/ton zvakateerana. Panyaya ye intertemporal arbitrage, isati yasvika peak yekuda mwaka muchirimo uye matsutso, zano renguva refu-pfupi-yakanaka arbitrage ndiyo nzira huru. Kubva 2011, hwaro hwekugadzirisa musika we rebar wagara uripo pakupera uye kutanga kwegore. Kunyanya munharaunda umo kupihwa uye kudiwa kunotarisirwa kutenderera mugore idzva, zvinokwanisika kuzadza gaka rekupa uye kugadzirisa musika wekutanga.

Batanidza kuchinyorwa ichi: Nzira yekudzika yerebar haizove yakatsetseka

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